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Weekend weather ahead

Another detailed report from the Met Office for the North West. Please be careful! Some yellow weather warnings in place:

Another severe frost overnight with Rostherne (NW Eng) down to -10.7C and Redesdale (NE Eng) also bottoming out at -10.7C but changes are now slowly starting to come into play which will culminate in the major change to much milder conditions by the end of Sunday. In the meantime plenty of weather to get through before then but after Sunday, a much more typical winter weather pattern for the rest of next week with wind and rain the main features. The UKHSA cold weather alert has this morning been extended until 2359 Sunday, after which it should return to Level 1.

Weather events during the coming week that merit (some) attention:

  • Today still generally very cold with some inland and upland sites struggling again to get above zero. Largely dry but one or two light showers of rain, sleet or snow into NW England.

  • Tonight – more cloud generally so not as cold as recent nights (still a frost for S parts of NW England and for much of NE England)) with areas of rain, sleet and higher level snow edging into NW England, esp Lancashire, Cumbria and perhaps reaching into the N Pennines. Risk of ice from liquid falling onto frozen surfaces, a few cm of snow possible for the higher level routes and hills.

  • Saturday - Further patchy rain (some sleet/snow over the higher ground) affecting NW England and perhaps initially getting over the Pennines into parts of the Northeast, tending to fade away with time. A generally cloudy day but all low-lying areas getting a few degrees above freezing. Skies clearing from the south on Saturday night with a frost developing, especially over NE England.

  • Sunday – Starting dry and cold but with the breeze picking up. A period of sleet and snow (small risk of freezing rain, especially Pennines) will spread NE across all areas, accompanied by strengthening winds (NW England in the morning, NE England into the afternoon), turning to rain later. Risk of temporary disruption to transport from snow across the trans-Pennine routes and Cumbrian passes but temperatures rising steadily later in the day as the milder air feeds in, precipitating a rapid thaw of any lying snow and a ground thaw too.

  • Sunday night onwards – Remaining unsettled with further rain at times and rather windy but with temperatures initially into the very mild category (loc 13-14C Monday) for a time before dropping back closer to nearer average.

Potential impacts from any of the above events:

  • Wintry Hazards (Today through Sunday):

Today: Light showers NW England this morning falling onto frozen surfaces may give enhanced ice risk in places (check radar for current distribution).

Tonight/tomorrow morning: Definite ice risk this evening and overnight as patchy rain/sleet/snow feeds into Lancashire/Cumbria and possibly into Pennine areas of NE England. Slight snowfall possible at higher levels this evening/overnight may also bring one or two localised issues to transport in those areas.

Sunday – Band of sleet/snow and possible freezing rain spreading NE’wards. Freezing rain main threat is Pennines. Snow risk mainly trans-Pennine routes, Cumbria (especially passes) and inland NE England. Snow lasting typically 2-4 hours, 5-10cm possible over the higher levels. Rapid thaw once transition to (non-freezing) rain is done.

  • Rest of the period beyond Sunday: Further rain to come throughout the week but dryness of previous fortnight mitigates against flood risk. Nevertheless need to keep an eye on things and daily Flood Guidance Statements will reflect the ongoing situation.

Current/expected Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

  • Tonight/tomorrow – Ice warning for inland NW England and N Pennine parts of NE England, medium likelihood of low impacts.

  • Sunday – Two warnings now in force. One for NE England, Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester for snow/ice, low likelihood of medium impacts. The second for Cheshire and Merseyside for ice (with mention of possible snow), medium likelihood of low impacts.

This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS):

  • All green throughout the next five days (very low flood risk).

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