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Weather update 21 Aug 2020

Our colleagues at the Met office have provided us with this report.

Normal service has been well and truly resumed with an unusually deep (for August) low pressure centre currently just off Ireland and heading up into the Norwegian Sea to bring blustery winds and showers across the region both today and tomorrow. The coming week looks to maintain this rather unsettled weather pattern with another potentially deep low centre coming in off the Atlantic around the middle of next working week, threatening another episode of wind and rain. Either side of this there should be some drier, quieter weather. The main interest from a resilience point of view will probably centre around next week’s low centre but plenty of time to elapse before the true detail of its associated wind/rain finally emerges. Temperature-wise nothing too much either side of average for the coming week with no sign now of any renewed very warm/hot weather to close out the summer.

Weather events over the coming week that merit (some) attention:

  • Blustery winds at times today (gusts could occasionally reach 40+mph inland and 50+mph along the coast) may result in a few low grade impacts, covered by the current yellow warning.

  • Showery conditions prevailing today, over the weekend and possibly on into Monday, the showers moving through at reasonable speed so overall rainfall totals not too concerning. Tomorrow could see the most extensive showers across our region with activity becoming more confined to the S half of the Northwest on Sunday. Some sharp showers possible on any of these days.

  • Short window of dry weather before the next Atlantic low centre crosses the UK around Tue/Wed of next week. Potential for a spell of moderate/heavy rain and some strong winds but track and intensity of low centre still to be resolved.

  • Hope for a slightly longer spell of more settled weather later next week in the wake of the midweek low.

Potential impacts from any of the above events:

  • Winds today could cause a few issues along the sea fronts (high waves, spray) close to the time of high tide (13:27 Blackpool, 13:57 Workington). Gusts could also inconvenience campers, the odd tree may also succumb whilst high level routes such as the M6 over Shap and the trans-Pennine routes may pose a hazard for high-sided vehicles.

  • Heavy rain/strong winds Tue/Wed of next week may result in some transport disruption along with localised river/surface water issues. Outdoor events/camp sites etc may also be at risk from disruption.

Current/Expected Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

  • Yellow (medium likelihood of low impacts) warning for wind in force today until 18:00 across the whole of the Northwest.

  • No other warnings in force for now but fresh issues for wind/rain may be required as we approach Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement:

  • Green area of concern along the Cumbrian coastline today as the strong S to SW winds coincide with the high astronomical tides giving a low likelihood of some minor coastal flooding impacts. Otherwise all green (very low flood risk) throughout the next five days but possible escalation for Tuesday (Rivers/Surface water) associated with the aforementioned low centre should forecast rainfall totals reach warnable levels, probably not until much nearer the time.

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