Our colleagues in the Met office have been in touch. Rest assured we will be checking on the rivers regularly for the rest of the week just so we can keep an eye on things. If you see a blocked drain report it or clear it on the surface if you can. Leaves are pesky things! You'll see us out and about no doubt - Jo
The Met office says: 'the period from tomorrow through to Monday looks increasingly unsettled with successive bouts of rainfall (and at times strong winds) affecting much of the Northwest, the cumulative effect of these events being an inevitable escalation in the flood risk across parts of the region, both from a river and surface water standpoint. The forecast detail for the period is still somewhat volatile with developments out in the Atlantic and over the USA (Hurricane Zeta) liable to influence how things ultimately play out across the UK. Below are the latest bullet points that attempt to capture the developing weather situation, based upon the latest forecast data:
No major issues today but some locally heavy showers possible, especially Lancashire/Cumbria. A few localised surface water issues possible but no warnings in force.
The first significant rainfall event begins tomorrow morning giving a spell of fairly persistent and locally heavy rain through the day, especially over Cumbria/Lancashire. The rain will turn somewhat lighter/more intermittent through tomorrow night with a period of dry weather possible for Cumbria/Lancashire during Friday whilst further S additional pulses of rain are likely through the day.
During Friday night and into Saturday – the rain expands back N’wards across the whole region, turning locally heavy again and accompanied by a strengthening S’ly wind. There may be a drier interlude at some stage on Saturday before the second half of this event sees the rain/wind eventually clearing E’wards later on Saturday afternoon/early evening (based on current timing).
A drier/quieter interlude then follows for Saturday night before the next bout of locally heavy rain and strong winds moves through all areas during Sunday, the rain currently timed to clear through during Sunday evening.
Strong winds and blustery showers likely on Monday, the potential for some heavy showers in places but with rainfall totals probably reduced compared to previous days.
A distant shaft of light at the end of the impending tunnel – a change to much more settled weather is on the horizon for later next week but much water to be negotiated before then.
Severe Weather Warnings/Flood Guidance Statement (FGS):
The existing yellow medium impacts warning for much of the region, valid 0900 Thu to 2359 Fri remains unchanged except for the start time brought forward by three hours.
A new yellow warning has been issued for Saturday’s event, risk assessed as a low likelihood of medium impacts, valid 0000 to 2100 Saturday.
A further warning icovers Sunday which looks much like that for Saturday.
The potential for escalation of any of the above warnings and the FGS, but more especially those covering the weekend period, either via an increased likelihood of medium impacts or via a move into the high impacts column, or both, exists throughout the next four days.
Leaf fall/accumulation may well play a part in local surface water flood risk, the strong S to SW’ly winds over the weekend in particular liable to dislodge twigs and some branches, increasing the likelihood of blocked drains/screens and hindering drainage of surface water.