Weather report 12 Feb 2021

Our colleagues at the Met Office have sent the look ahead weather report to us. Here you are:

'The cold spell will, as promised, give way on Sunday as Atlantic weather fronts ‘break through’ with no further wintry hazards expected throughout next week, just a mixture of occasional rainy interludes but also some drier/brighter spells too. Temperature levels by Monday will be back on the +ve side of average and should remain at or above average for much of next week which should, if anything, encourage the snowdrops, crocuses and daffodils in to another growth spurt and eventually provide some welcome colour to gardens and in the parks.

Weather events over the coming week that merit (some) attention:

  • Dry and reasonably bright both today and tomorrow but increasing wind chill developing as the cold air hangs on but the S to SE’ly wind picks up. This will be especially noticeable tomorrow if you’re out and about. Overnight temperatures liable to drop below freezing (though not by all that much) both tonight and tomorrow night.

  • Sunday is transition day. As mentioned yesterday this is the day when areas of precipitation will cross the Northwest, the choice liable to be between freezing rain, ‘regular’ rain or a mixture of the two. The former, were it to develop, would most likely affect areas well inland during the lunchtime to mid-afternoon period and could result in a temporary increase in iciness, especially over higher level routes. However, with the forecast signal varying considerably from day to day we can’t yet say for sure whether the Northwest will be affected.

  • After a largely dry Monday a further spell of rain looks likely to cross all parts on Tuesday, some of the rain locally heavy.

  • The remainder of the week sees a mixture of some drier/brighter weather but also the chance of some further rain although amounts do not currently look to threaten any impacts.

  • Temperature levels back up around or even above average from Monday onwards encouraging higher level snowmelt over the Cumbrian Fells and the Pennines.

Potential impacts from any of the above:

  • The threat of some temporary iciness on roads/pavements etc. resulting from any freezing rain on Sunday is the main source of possible impacts.

  • Rainfall Sunday and Tuesday and perhaps later next week look unlikely to cause impacts, especially given the relatively dry weather of this week. Snowmelt, especially in the N Pennines, could perhaps give one or two localised surface water issues.

Current/Expected Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

  • Nil at present. The ice risk for Sunday will be reassessed tomorrow morning and a warning may be required. Small chance of a low impact warning for Tuesday’s rain but again that would be assessed closer to time in tandem with the flood guidance.

This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement:

  • A green area of concern (low likelihood of minor surface water/river impacts) just fringes into E Cumbria and NE Lancashire for Sunday & Monday, linked to snowmelt and Sunday’s rain. Otherwise all good across the Northwest for the next five days.'

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