Our colleagues in the met office have sent us the following update on this week's weather:
'October seems determined to end on a soggy note. Friday’s horizon-scanner alluded to concerns regarding possible periods of extended rainfall later this working week. These concerns may end up being realised during the course of Thursday and Friday with a slow-moving band of orographically-enhanced rainfall threatening to impact parts of our region, along with Wales. This kind of set-up, coming on the back of several days’ worth of unsettled weather, is always one that makes us sit up and take notice and this week is no exception. There’s still a few days to go of course so some oscillation in the forecast detail should be allowed for, but the overall message of an unsettled week, capped off by a longer spell of locally heavy rain during Thursday/Friday (and the possibility of further bouts of rainfall going into next weekend), needs pushing out now.
As a result we have this morning issued a very low likelihood of medium impacts yellow warning for the event, the warning covering Cumbria, Lancashire and reaching into parts of Merseyside and much of Greater Manchester, valid between 12:00 Thursday and 23:59 Friday. The warning has been placed in the medium impacts column to emphasise the potential for enhanced disruption from transport delays/property flooding and, although currently rated a very low likelihood, provides scope for escalation if required closer to the time of onset. The Met Office warning is mirrored in this morning’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) with a yellow polygon covering the aforementioned areas and depicting a very low likelihood of significant impacts, the flood risk derived from both river and surface water contributions. With the autumn leaf fall proceeding apace, consideration needs to be given towards blocked road drains and the like, potentially enhancing the surface water flood risk in the more tree-dense locations.