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Weather this weekend...(4/5 July)

Good afternoon

Please see the attached weather report from our colleagues in the Met Office:

An unsettled weekend ahead as the Atlantic exerts its influence on our weather just at the time we’d prefer it not to. That be the case, things look to quieten down as we head into the next working week but there are no extended spells of dry, warm weather currently in sight. I’m mindful of the loosening of lockdown restrictions coming into force this weekend and the likelihood of increased traffic/human loading on the road network and in the holiday destinations. This will not exactly be the weekend those venturing out would wish for with developments on Sunday (see below) especially pertinent.

Weather events over the coming week that merit (some) attention:

· Outbreaks of rain today affecting Cumbria and Lancashire in particular. Some heavier bursts of rain possible but impact assessment, as expressed on this morning’s Flood Guidance Statement, is for only a low/very low likelihood of minor impacts at worst from river response/surface water for much of Cumbria and N Lancashire, hence green on the risk matrix and no elevated flood risk or Met Office severe weather warnings for this event. Totals over the most prone parts of Cumbria may exceed 100mm but should be down on last weekend’s values. Rain becoming lighter/patchier this evening/overnight.

· Overnight and through tomorrow all areas staying largely cloudy with further pockets of drizzly rain at times, more especially Cumbria/Lancashire. A few brighter interludes mainly in the S of our region.

· Potential for a strong wind event in the early hours of Sunday through until the late afternoon as a deepening low centre passes to the N of us into the North Sea. Differences between the various forecast models as to how deep the low becomes mean ongoing questions as to how strong the winds will be. Gusts of 50-60mph possible across the N half of the region (see severe weather warnings section below).

· Still breezy with a few showers for a time on Monday but a quietening down trend through until midweek.

· Likelihood is that further spells of rain, perhaps accompanied by brisk winds, will affect the UK midweek onwards, interspersed by some drier, more settled weather as the Atlantic maintains its influence on proceedings.

Potential impacts from any of the above events:

· Today’s rain may give a few localised minor impacts, either from river response or from surface water excess on the roads.

· Main concern is the potential impact from strong winds through a good part of Sunday. Should the potential wind speeds be realised across Cumbria/Lancashire then some trees would likely be brought down with possible knock-on effects for transport and rural power transmission. Unsecured structures may also be at risk and any outdoor events taking advantage of the easing of lockdown restrictions could also be adversely affected.

Current Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

· Yellow warning for wind (very low likelihood of medium impacts) issued for Cumbria and the N half of Lancashire for the period 0000 to 1600 Sunday. Given the disparity between forecast models for the associated low pressure centre, I expect this warning to be revisited tomorrow morning and updated accordingly.

This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement:

· Green (very low flood risk) throughout the next 5 days but with a green area of concern (low likelihood of minor impacts from rivers) in place today/tomorrow for the S half of Cumbria and N/NE Lancashire.

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